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Re:Germany to Rethink Nuclear Shutdown as Energy Crisis Deepens by ZeroGravitas on Tuesday July 19, 2022 @04:43PM (#32157700)
California is very well placed to take advantage of cheap solar energy.

I watched the video and I'm not sure I even caught what the problem was supposed to be? There was a vague implication that solar and batteries were expensive, but I didn't see any actual comparison to how much gas and nuclear would cost as an alternative.

Solar PV is the cheapest available energy, and California will probably generate about 3/4 of its energy with it. Currently about 50% of their electricity is gas, so whenever the sun is shining they can stop burning gas and save money and carbon.

Solar PV plus lithium batteries are already cheaper than peaking gas and so being rolled out for purely financial reasons and the price gap is only widening.

So when do the problems start?

Re:Germany to Rethink Nuclear Shutdown as Energy Crisis Deepens by ncmncm on Tuesday July 19, 2022 @09:42PM (#32160322)
After renewables become a large enough fraction of the generating capacity, then it becomes necessary to start adding storage.

It is legitimate to ask whether there will ever be enough lithium battery production capacity to to provide for both cars and utilities, but it is a made-up problem because almost all utility storage will not be lithium batteries, but something cheaper.

California already has quite a lot of pumped hydro capacity in place, and could add more cheaply by adding pumps to existing reservoir penstocks.

Re:Germany to Rethink Nuclear Shutdown as Energy Crisis Deepens by ZeroGravitas on Wednesday July 20, 2022 @04:27AM (#32162950)
Due to forward looking regulations, California (like China) is just about to have a dramatic storage boom over the next few years. They have 40GWh of EV batteries and are likely to quadruple that in a few years, but I'm not even counting that in the boom, basically every planned grid solar deployment includes a big chunk of batteries.

I feel like we're back at the point in the cycle were the detractors say "solar is a net negative" or "wind can never supply more than 17%". It's not based on science or economics just pessimism.

Fundamentally, solar and lithium batteries are cheap, abundant alternative that cost less than the next best thing. They're going to be a lot bigger than most people currently expect, especially in sunny regions like California with good regulations in the short term, and long term they will utterly dominate in Equatorial regions on market price alone.

Daily cycle storage has been a known solved issue for a while, we're just waiting for the pricing and deployment to catch up. And seasonal storage now looks likely to be green hydrogen, again solved before we really need it.

Just the queue of planned projects today in California, Chile and China is enough to show this is true.

Growth pains of a rapidly growing battery manufacturing sector should provide the opposite impression that people seem to take. Always with the "at current rates" stats to make change seem impossible.

Yes, new things that don't exist don't exist, that's why we invented them and built big factories to make them, because we wanted them to exist in large numbers.

Re:Germany to Rethink Nuclear Shutdown as Energy Crisis Deepens by ncmncm on Tuesday July 19, 2022 @05:06PM (#32157977)
Any analysis that uses lithium batteries as the reference storage technology gives at best an upper bound on cost. More often it signals incompetence or bad faith.

Real utilities will rely on whatever storage is cheapest at the time they need to build it. Batteries will remain among the most expensive storage, but are good for load-smoothing.

Synthetic fuels cost more, but have desirable externalities: utilities can sell excess production. Those costs are falling fast, too.