If Musk gives some smaller amount of money, though still several billion, but the shareholders still own the company, that's not going to be too hard to sell as a win.
So to the extent Twitter is currently worth less than $44 billion and there’s a binding merger agreement that delivers $44 billion of value to the shareholders, the board has to do something to bridge that gap. A billion-dollar break fee ain’t gonna cut it. But sure, if at the end of the day the shareholders can retain ownership of Twitter, Inc. worth $25 billion (and the value of the company hasn’t been irreversibly impaired by this circus) and extract a $20 billion settlement from the acquirer, then were I a Twitter board member, I wouldn’t feel too worried giving my deposition about that outcome.
Still not a great look for anyone though.
Now, that said, there are likely to be good commercial, legal and practical reasons for them to settle this case, even if they win on specific performance. But the optics are terrible for Twitter’s board, and they’re all gonna get raked over the coals in the forthcoming shareholder litigation (which in inevitable regardless of how this winds up playing out).