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Re:Bankruptcy, not bailout, is the right answer by bilbo0s on Tuesday September 30, 2008 @02:19PM (#319855)
I am still a little confused as to what exactly is causing this crisis. I looked into the whole sub prime Fannie and Freddie thing and I found some surprising things. The first thing I found was that poor people get home loans through mechanisms other than sub prime lending. They go through the whole Ginnie Mae umbrella, where all the inner city HUD and FHA stuff is handled, along with rural housing, housing for native americans and there is also a special allowance for veterans of the military to cover them under Ginnie. All of these groups use mechanisms OTHER THAN SUB PRIME! Or rather, sub prime or not, these people have loans that are guaranteed EXPLICITLY by the government, unlike the loans backed by Fannie and Freddie which had IMPLICIT guarantees. How can Ginnie Mae be sound and Fannie and Freddie be such basket cases? Even if 100% of the poor people defaulted, Fannie and Freddie would be untouched. Another question is, who, exactly, was using these sub prime mechanisms that Fannie and Freddie ended up backing? The auditors are claiming that they were primarily used by people making between $40000 and $150000 to afford mortgages that they would otherwise be denied. But something is out of place. Why would the middle class be defaulting at such a high rate? There is some money missing here. I have yet to get a really complete understanding of what went on exactly. After reading through all of the financial info, I am left even more confused.

Is there an economist on Hacker News somewhere that can explain these inconsistencies to us? The only thing I could come up with is that these people wanted to live beyond their means. My quandary is that I have either severely underestimated the number of middle class Americans who want to live beyond their means, or overestimated my capacity for financial analysis.

And yes . . . it could be both.

Re:Bankruptcy, not bailout, is the right answer by trevelyan on Tuesday September 30, 2008 @04:09PM (#319977)
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac simply packaged debt, and hardly the worst of the stuff. The real culprit was the widespread growth of variable rate mortgages.

Most traditional mortgages are fixed-rate. Homeowners agree to pay the bank __% over the course of the mortgage in return for the bank providing payment up front. The house is collateral so the bank doesn't lose money if the homeowner fails to make payment. Variable rate mortgages are simply promises to pay the bank a certain percentage over its own cost of securing funding. This is usually tied to inter-bank lending rates.

Variable rate loans were popular with banks because they pushed risk onto homeowners. Banks no longer risked losing money if their cost of borrowing spiked (and interest rates were at historic lows....). The same loans were popular with speculators who could get cheap capital to purchase housing in a rising market.

This causes: (1) an explosion of variable rate mortgage products, and lots of people getting them to cover real estate purchases, (2) increased (speculative) demand which drives up housing prices and encourages speculation, (3) people going further into debt using the increased value of their existing property as collateral. In many cases homeowners took out second mortgages just to give themselves more free income. This is a lot like borrowing cash from the bank using your Pets.com stock as collateral back in 1999.

The game becomes untenable in two situations (1) when money stops flowing into the housing market and prices stop rising, or (2) when interest rates rise.

The Republicans have really screwed up here. The Fed is trying to lower the cost of borrowing between banks to help push down the interest rate and keep people from being forced out of their homes by rising payments - a situation that would only exacerbate the financial crisis from the perspective of lenders who have paid $$$$ and are now stuck with the collateral worth $$ and falling. Banks are failing and so banks don't want to lend money to other banks. This causes the inter-bank borrowing rate to shoot up, further exacerbating the problem.

Now that spreads are soaring again we can expect a lot more foreclosures which will push more glut onto housing markets and tank the price of property. Perhaps even the collapse of the banking system. That might have happened anyway though, since no-one has any clue about what sort of money is being lost in derivatives.

Re:Bankruptcy, not bailout, is the right answer by wallflower on Tuesday September 30, 2008 @03:55PM (#319957)
This American Life "The Giant Pool of Money" episode offers a good background on the crisis: http://www.thislife.org/extras/radio/355_transcript.pdf

Act I: "Alan Greenspan: 'The FOMC stands prepared to maintain a highly accommodative stance of policy for as long as needed to promote satisfactory economic performance.'...

What he’s technically saying is he’s going to keep the Fed Funds rate at the absurdly low level of one percent. It tells every investor in the world: you are not going to make any money at all on US treasury bonds for a very long time. Go somewhere else. We can’t help you."

Act II "And they sold so many mortgages that there came a point in 2003 where just about everybody who wanted a mortgage and was qualified to get one .... had gotten one.

But the pool of money had just gotten started. They wanted more mortgage backed securities.

So Wall Street had to find more people to take out mortgages. Which meant lending to people who never would’ve qualified before."

"At the height I was making between 75 and 100 grand a month" -Glen Pizzolorusso, who was an area sales manager at an outfit called WMC mortgage in upstate New York."

Act III: "The global pool of money is avoiding anything with even the slightest hint of risk and that affects everybody, no matter who you are. It's harder to borrow money to buy a house, or build a factory, or bring your country boldly into the 21st century. Take Iceland. A year ago it was easy for them to borrow billions. Now, they're seen as too risky. Their central bank has to pay more than 15 percent interest get anyone to loan them money. They could do better putting their national debt on a credit card."

Re:Bankruptcy, not bailout, is the right answer by netcan on Tuesday September 30, 2008 @08:55PM (#320224)
Here's what i don't understand. If the global pool of money is getting tighter, why aren't interest rates going up?
Re:Bankruptcy, not bailout, is the right answer by MaysonL on Wednesday October 01, 2008 @05:35AM (#320543)
Some interests are going up: Google "TED Spread". Also, note that 3 month Treasury securities, the safest investments in the world, have been selling to yield less than 1%. LIBOR - the "prime" rate for loans between banks, hit over 5% - for 1 day loans! Banks are very scared of lending to other banks, because they don't have any idea whether the other guy is broke.
Re:Bankruptcy, not bailout, is the right answer by netcan on Wednesday October 01, 2008 @09:16AM (#320652)
Does 'increasing the supply of money' fix this?
Re:Bankruptcy, not bailout, is the right answer by abijlani on Wednesday October 01, 2008 @04:51AM (#320516)
The interest rate is not tied to the amount of money available for lending but the amount of lenders out the there. So if there a huge demand for loans the interest rate goes up to counter balance the demand.

With the economy tanking and the money tightening if they raised the interest rates, nobody would borrow and the situation would get even worse.

Re:Bankruptcy, not bailout, is the right answer by davidw on Tuesday September 30, 2008 @04:19PM (#319989)
The best thing is to read a lot of sources yourself and try and make up your own mind. Everyone's trying to sell something, whether it's the libertopians telling you that if there were just no regulations at all, everything would finally work out, or the complete-faith-in-the-government left which thinks that everything will be just great once we regulate everything down to the last detail (caricatures... well, yeah, sorry guys, but reams have been written on this stuff, and I kind of like satirizing it).

Also, the above fundamental philosophical differences are one reason why this stuff just shouldn't be here: people completely disagree and are just going to go on and on and on without really concluding anything.