Batteries don’t turn into garbage when you look real life data:

https://maartensteinbuch.com/2015/01/24/tesla-model-s-batter...

Quote:

  On average the batteries have 91% remaining at 270.000 km (170,000 miles). If the linear behavior would continue, then the ‘lifetime’ (still 80% capacity left) can be calculated as follows: 91-80 = 11% times 50.000 km =  550.000 km, plus 270.000 km, gives 820.000 km (510,000 miles)! Note that a ICE car has a average lifetime of 220.000 km (140,000 miles)… And remember: if an ICE fails after say 300.000 km, you have a problem. The battery in a Tesla EV after the suggested 820.000 km (ok, lets take 500.000 km, still great!) still has 80% capacity left!

>Batteries don’t turn into garbage when you look real life data

Not really the same thing, but anecdotally my hybrid Camry just ticked over 220k km the fuel efficiency is a good way to check (NiMH) battery performance over those 10 years.

when we first got it, we got about 4.6lts per 100km. in the middle there it blew out to about 6ltrs for a while but discovered the injectors were screwed, replaced them (au$2800) and ever since we've been hovering around 4.8 to 5.2 (depending on weather for heating and cooling requirements).

That may be. We'll need to wait for the data, which could go off a cliff still. But what we do know is if you have an outlier, it's pretty damn costly.

https://people.com/human-interest/tesla-owner-blows-up-his-c...

There are cheaper ways to repair it outside Tesla:

https://electrek.co/2021/09/13/tesla-battery-pack-replacemen...

  Tesla tried to charge $22,500 for new battery pack when a $5,000 repair did the trick

  While Tesla recently started opening up some of its diagnostic tools to third parties, the automaker still has a lot of limitations when it comes to powertrain diagnostics. Electrified Garage uses some hacks to get past that and figure out what is wrong with the pack. In this case, they detected some voltage imbalances in 2 of the 16 battery modules:


  So how much did it cost? The modules were $1,500 each, for a total of $3,000. Another $750 in parts for contractors and fuses, with the main one being upgraded to the ones introduced in the Model S Ludicrous.

  With diagnostic and labor, it came up to about $5,000, or about 75% less than Tesla was quoting for a full battery pack replacement.

I'm more curious how much money he made off the youtube video. If it was anywhere close to $5K, it would seem that maybe exploding Teslas at their end of life would become a profitable thing to do.

"many vehicles stay on the road much longer than that today."

Do they really, though? Per https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/average-age-of-vehic... the average age on cars on the road now is 12.2 years.

12 years average means there're plenty of 20 year old cars. And many old cars stay on the road, just exported to poorer countries.

No they don't. They spend very little time on the road, most of the time stationary. Obligatory link to Donald Shoup and the "High Price of Free Parking". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_High_Cost_of_Free_Parking

My cars are all older than that and they are still pretty awesome.

Subaru and a Highlander. Not particularly valuable but they get the job done for my family and I for A-to-B.

Outside of Silicon Valley, I see a lot of old cars on the road.

The above poster used a referenced published average and you responded with your 2 hyperlocal anecdotes.

Averages are averages, medians are medians, and anecdotes are not data.

Sure, lots of people just want a newer car and can't or don't care to reuse or recycle.

If someone is disposing of a perfectly good used car to buy a new car, then someone else is going to buy their used car. And if they sell their old car and it's still decent, someone will buy that too. On down the line until you get to a car that isn't worth owning. And then that car is largely recycled, which is a better use for it than staying on the street polluting. No one is throwing out working electric cars, or gas cars that get good mileage and are in good operating condition.