> Looks like the paper covers this, and counter-intuitively, most supply-shocks do not have far-reaching impacts to the global supply.

Thanks. Yes, I find that counterintuitive too. But note that in the publicly released data and model, the authors make highly simplifying assumptions about the limits of supply sources and edge capacities -- see lines 202-208 of the paper. In the real world, sources have limits at which you just can't get more flow at any cost, and edges have limits at which you can't transport more flow at any cost. I wonder how the responses to supply shocks would look if subject to hard limits on supply sources and edge capacities.