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Re:Are Buy Now Pay Laters the Next Bubble? by RC_ITR on Sunday July 03, 2022 @02:30PM (#31969864)
> by using BNPL you forego 2% or whatever in credit card rewards, so you’re effectively paying ~8% annualized for a 3-month term.

I love your chutzpah, but you don’t get to do that math that way. The 2% doesn’t compound, it’s a one-time thing (unless you’re continually rolling over your BNPL purchases)

Re:Are Buy Now Pay Laters the Next Bubble? by tfehring on Sunday July 03, 2022 @02:42PM (#31969948)
It’s still useful to convert to an annualized interest rate even if your “investment” period is less than a year, because annualized returns are the standard unit of measurement for investment returns.

For example, if you’re debating whether to use a 2% rewards credit card or to use BNPL and keep the difference in a savings or money market account for 90 days, the latter strategy only wins if that account is yielding more than ~8%. Or if you’re deciding whether to use BNPL to let you pay down other debt a little faster, it’s only worth it if the interest rate on that debt is above ~8%.

Re:Are Buy Now Pay Laters the Next Bubble? by RC_ITR on Sunday July 03, 2022 @03:41PM (#31970378)
Yes. But let’s break this into first principles. You get $200 rewards on a $10k purchase. In no world do you get $800 on $10k. You only get $800 on $40k because the 2% isn’t a rate in principle so 8% literally never happens.
Re:Are Buy Now Pay Laters the Next Bubble? by tfehring on Sunday July 03, 2022 @06:04PM (#31971417)
The opportunity cost of 2% credit card rewards isn't a rate, but you can convert it to a rate by dividing by the time period. If you forego $200 in rewards to keep $10k for an extra 3 months, you're paying $67 or 0.67% per month for that money. If you instead forego that same $200 in rewards but get to keep your money for 6 months, you're only paying $33 or 0.33% per month. Converting those monthly rates to annualized rates of ~8% and ~4% respectively is just a matter of convenience, the math still works out the same if you keep everything on a monthly basis instead.
Re:Are Buy Now Pay Laters the Next Bubble? by RC_ITR on Sunday July 03, 2022 @06:24PM (#31971529)
But I’m telling you annualizing something like that is not convenience, it’s misleading.

Does every cash purchase also have an infinite APR? Because there I’m paying $200 for nothing. If that’s not logical then where does it start being logical?

Re:Are Buy Now Pay Laters the Next Bubble? by pandaman on Sunday July 03, 2022 @11:39PM (#31973263)
It's pretty simple really. Consider two scenarios of buying a $100 item:

a) pay with a 2% reward credit card

b) pay with BNPL scheme with a 3 month term.

In the scenario a) you effectively paid $98 right away and in the scenario b) you pay $100 but after 90 days (let's say you don't have monthly payments for simplicity). For b) to be no more expensive than a) you need a way to make at least $2 from a $100 investment in 90 days. This means that whatever investment you make with the $100 has to yield 8% annually. Even though you withdraw money after 90 days.

If you have monthly payments you need even higher yield to compete with the 2% reward. E.g. if you pay $33.33 every month then you need to make 1% yield per month to collect $2 off your initial $100 in 3 months: you get 3 months of yield from the final $33.33 payment, 2 months of the previous payment and 1 month of the first payment for total 6 months yield from $33.33. That's 12% annualized yield.

Re:Are Buy Now Pay Laters the Next Bubble? by RC_ITR on Monday July 04, 2022 @02:18PM (#31980214)
You’re not answering my question about cash.
Re:Are Buy Now Pay Laters the Next Bubble? by pandaman on Monday July 04, 2022 @05:37PM (#31982013)
What is your question about cash? There is no APR on credit card purchase in this scenario. There is also no APR on cash purchases. If you pay cash you pay $100 and without delay so you just lose 2% discount from the credit card or any chance to make any interest from your money on BNPL.
Re:Are Buy Now Pay Laters the Next Bubble? by josephcsible on Sunday July 03, 2022 @04:04PM (#31970553)
Think of two scenarios where you're buying something for $1000.

Scenario 1: You use a credit card with a 2% cash back reward to make the purchase. You immediately pay off the credit card balance and claim the $20 of rewards. Your net cash flow is -$980 at time 0.

Scenario 2: You buy a 3-month zero-coupon CD for $980 today, and then use 3-month BNPL to make the purchase. In three months, the CD earns $20 of interest. You cash in the CD for $1000 and then use that $1000 to pay off the BNPL. Your net cash flow is again just -$980 at time 0.

The annual effective interest rate yielded by the CD for scenario 2 to work out exactly as described is roughly 8% (actually around 8.42%).

Re:Are Buy Now Pay Laters the Next Bubble? by RC_ITR on Sunday July 03, 2022 @04:43PM (#31970840)
Yes but who is going to pay you the 2% for the remaining 9 months?!?!

You’re incorporating a theoretical (and unrelated to 2% credit card rewards) interest rate into your calculations. I could easily say a CD yields 10% and this is a 50% APR then.

EDIT: Maybe to help you think about this: this is a purchase loan. It is not a cash loan. You got $1k worth of goods for $1k dollars. You can make arguments about opportunity costs, but that’s different than the traditional concept of APR.

EDIT 2: I’m posting banned but indulge me, what’s the APR of cash purchases?

Re:Are Buy Now Pay Laters the Next Bubble? by josephcsible on Sunday July 03, 2022 @06:23PM (#31971522)
> Yes but who is going to pay you the 2% for the remaining 9 months?!?!

Don't think of equalizing the terms by extending the BNPL. Think of equalizing the terms by shortening the CD.

> You’re incorporating a theoretical (and unrelated to 2% credit card rewards) interest rate into your calculations. I could easily say a CD yields 10% and this is a 50% APR then.

I'm not claiming that the ~8% interest rate is real. My calculations mean that if you can get that rate or better, then you should use 3-month BNPL, and if you can't, then you should use your credit card with 2% cash back instead.

> EDIT: Maybe to help you think about this: this is a purchase loan. It is not a cash loan. You got $1k worth of goods for $1k dollars. You can make arguments about opportunity costs, but that’s different than the traditional concept of APR.

I fail to see how that makes any difference.

> what’s the APR of cash purchases?

It's either the highest APR of any of your debt, if you have any, or the risk-free APR you could get from a savings account otherwise.

Re:Are Buy Now Pay Laters the Next Bubble? by RC_ITR on Sunday July 03, 2022 @10:05PM (#31972785)
> It's either the highest APR of any of your debt,

Yes, by your logic it is literally an infinite APR. $200 numerator / 0 years denominator. Doesn’t that imply that maybe your formula has some holes in it and this is a fundamentally different transaction (a take rate rather than an interest rate) than what you’re characterizing it as?

Re:Are Buy Now Pay Laters the Next Bubble? by josephcsible on Sunday July 03, 2022 @10:21PM (#31972858)
That equation is definitely wrong, but it's not the one that I've used anywhere.
Re:Are Buy Now Pay Laters the Next Bubble? by RC_ITR on Monday July 04, 2022 @02:20PM (#31980246)
In your scenarios, your cash flow is -$1000 at time 0 if you pay with cash.
Re:Are Buy Now Pay Laters the Next Bubble? by josephcsible on Monday July 04, 2022 @03:07PM (#31980649)
Okay, I think I see where you're coming from now. With the 2% reward from the credit card, using it today is -$980 today, and cash is -$1000 today. If you do the math to see what interest rate you'd need for paying cash to be the better option, you do indeed get an infinite APR. This matches with common sense: if your net cash flow is zero at all future times either way, you're always better off paying $980 today rather than $1000, no matter what interest rates are.
Re:Are Buy Now Pay Laters the Next Bubble? by tobyjsullivan on Sunday July 03, 2022 @02:35PM (#31969908)
Where did the parent suggest there was compounding? I read it as 2% of the purchase price, on a 3-month term. 2% * 4 = 8% annually, without compounding.
Re:Are Buy Now Pay Laters the Next Bubble? by RC_ITR on Sunday July 03, 2022 @03:41PM (#31970374)
Yes. But let’s break this into first principles.

You get $200 rewards on a $10k purchase.

In no world do you get $800 on $10k. You only get $800 on $40k because the 2% isn’t a rate in principle so 8% literally never happens.