Savvy folks know that no CEO will ever say "yes, we are planning a layoff", and so they know that "there are no layoffs coming" really gives you no information. Naive and younger people will believe it though, so there is still value in saying it.

The key is to listen to the case the CEO makes. "There are no layoffs coming, I promise" is a signal that layoffs are coming.

"There are no layoffs coming. We are growing X% YOY and hiring pace of Y% has not slowed. Yada yada yada." is a signal that it's true.

This all strikes me as very Life-of-Brian-ish:

> "I'm not the messiah!"

> "Only the true messiah would deny his divinity."

> "Well what chance does that give me?! Alright, I am the messiah!"

If the CEO says layoffs are coming, people freak out. So the CEO says no layoffs are coming, so we immediately assume that layoffs are coming.

Right. People learn the code language and learn that others lie, then look to other observations (e.g., insider word from friendly executives, market reports, etc.) to determine the truth. In the end, people are laid off anyway, except now they've learned to mistrust those in authority.