Re:AI predicts crime a week in advance with 90 per cent accu...
by mdp2021 on Friday July 01, 2022 @05:20AM
(#31944103)
The submitted divulgative article did not quite clarify what the AI is doing - it seems like weather forecasting on crime related events, but I expected more content about "how" and "how well"; for example, you do not need AI to determine "how much", and it takes some cleverness to instead predict "when", which is one of the interesting points you want explicit.
I am unfortunately lacking the time now to examine the material (hopefully I will later). For now, it seems clear that the effort is not really about crime prediction but to show that some methodology can produce unbalanced police planning:
> We introduce a stochastic inference algorithm that forecasts crime by learning spatio-temporal dependencies from event reports, with a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of ~90% in Chicago for crimes predicted per week within ~1,000 ft. Such predictions enable us to study perturbations of crime patterns that suggest that the response to increased crime is biased by neighbourhood socio-economic status, draining policy resources from socio-economically disadvantaged areas, as demonstrated in eight major US cities
So I found another divulgative article at Phys.org : https://phys.org/news/2022-06-algorithm-crime-week-advance-r...
and a news piece / press release at UChicago.edu : https://biologicalsciences.uchicago.edu/news/algorithm-predi...
and finally, the original research article, at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-022-01372-0
I am unfortunately lacking the time now to examine the material (hopefully I will later). For now, it seems clear that the effort is not really about crime prediction but to show that some methodology can produce unbalanced police planning:
> We introduce a stochastic inference algorithm that forecasts crime by learning spatio-temporal dependencies from event reports, with a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of ~90% in Chicago for crimes predicted per week within ~1,000 ft. Such predictions enable us to study perturbations of crime patterns that suggest that the response to increased crime is biased by neighbourhood socio-economic status, draining policy resources from socio-economically disadvantaged areas, as demonstrated in eight major US cities