Yes, Manchin and Sinema are more problematic. Still, I don't think you addressed my actual point, which is that removing the filibuster to pass federal abortion protection would be a big deal, and the best the Democrats could hope for today is a 50/50 vote with the VP breaking the tie. I'd personally be astonished if they even tried, not because they didn't feel like it but because it would very likely be a gun that blew up in their hand.

I believe this is the kind of issue where you'd have to overcome the filibuster, not remove it. This isn't something Democrats were realistically able to do in 2008-2010, and they definitely can't do it now.