Re:Ask HN: How to raise a seed round in a down market?
by forstmeier on Saturday June 25, 2022 @10:56AM
(#31875801)
The focus on revenue is definitely a paradigm shift for the current environment. It's part of my hypothesis behind Automated Capital (http://automated.capital/).
Re:Ask HN: How to raise a seed round in a down market?
by ghaff on Saturday June 25, 2022 @07:58AM
(#31874493)
>anecdotally, it feels like hiring is a little easier.
On the one hand, some companies are trimming and many others are hiring much more selectively. On the other hand, there are a lot of people out there with comp expectations set by big tech large RSU inflation and bonus levels, much of which will likely come down to earth.
Re:Ask HN: How to raise a seed round in a down market?
by hubraumhugo on Saturday June 25, 2022 @07:39AM
(#31874401)
Thanks for the insights; this was exactly the sort of answer I was looking for! I sent you a DM on Twitter in case you're open to taking a closer look at my startup and fundraising plans.
In general, seed stage is less affected by the recent downturn than later stages. Which makes sense, since the time to exit for a seed stage company can be the better part of a decade, so today's macro climate has less impact.
A few tips and observations:
- from what I've seen, most seed funds are still investing, although on average at a 20-40% slower cadence than 6 months ago. On the other hand, some later stage investors are now more active at seed because that lets them keep investing while putting less capital at risk.
- assume valuations will be closer to what they were ~2 years ago. Earlier this year, the median seed valuation felt like ~$20m post, and we saw a number of $30m-$40m post money valuations. Right now we're seeing more valuations in the teens, and seed round sizes are more frequently $2m-3m instead of $4m-$6m.
- longer runways are favored. The fundraising climate over the next year is uncertain -- especially for Series A and beyond -- so the typical "raise for 18+ mo of runway" advice has turned into "raise for 24-30 mo of runway."
- cash efficiency and faster time to revenue are favored over growth in this climate.
- capital intensive businesses will be much harder to raise for.
- investor diligence is shifting away from FOMO and rushed decisions, and back toward normal diligence processes. Assume that investments decisions will take an extra 1-4 weeks for each investor.
It's not all bad news:
- anecdotally, it feels like hiring is a little easier.
- historically, recessions have been a great time to start big companies.
- there's still a LOT of capital waiting to be deployed into startups.
- "fundraises are looking like they did in 2020" is still pretty good, since 2020 was already a great year to be fundraising as a founder.