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Re:The Case for a Confederal Europe by arethuza on Thursday June 23, 2022 @02:12PM (#31853039)
One of the most accurate predictions about Brexit was made by Nigel Farage, one of the leaders of the Brexit campaign - this was before the referendum:

"β€œIn a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way."

Of course he was thinking of a 52-48 vote for Remain - but his point is still valid.

Re:The Case for a Confederal Europe by TMWNN on Thursday June 23, 2022 @02:40PM (#31853432)
Yes, but he also wasn't thinking about the four subsequent years in which anti-Brexit forces tried everything they could (and more) to stop the duly passed referendum from actually taking effect. That went a long way toward causing the collapse of Labour's "red wall" in northern England in the 2019 election.
Re:The Case for a Confederal Europe by pmyteh on Thursday June 23, 2022 @02:57PM (#31853638)
FWIW the trend in the vulnerable 'red wall' seats has been towards the Conservatives for decades. This is partly as a result of partisan and class dealignment, and partly because the Labour-leaning forces of the organised working class have been in retreat there since the 70s. A former mining area like Bolsover, for example, has moved to vote more like similarly situated semi-rural, increasingly elderly, and low-wage areas since the pits closed.

Brexit also a factor in '19, of course, but those seats are red in history and not any more in demographics.