I think it makes sense that EU would want to see the country maintaining peace and prosperity for a while until they're more serious about membership. This is why the recent Ukraine membership deal will not work out any time soon, it's a long game.
I see no reason why a truly democratic and market-economy stable Russia could not become part of the EU. But I am also very pessimistic that I will live to see it, as much as I hope I will. Under these conditions, Russia could even join NATO.
[1] See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_in_the_Council_of_Europ...
EU had plenty of time to prove it and did no real steps towards integration. Trying to drive a wedge between Russia and its neighbours at the same time.
I'm not sure what membership in Council of Europe did for Russia. European Human Rights Court was somewhat visible but that's it.
This is not true. Other counterexamples: Russia is a member of the Partnership for Peace[1] initiative. In the 1990s, when Russia was in a very bad economic situation, there was a lot of support for Russia from the EU, especially from ordinary people who sent aid packages or organised transport. I was myself shortly involved in a program to foster academic exchange with Lomonosov University.
Fact is that democracy and free market economy never really took hold in Russia. After Gorbachev and Shevardnadze, what was there in the beginning could not grow but declined. Corruption was everywhere. Chechnya was turned into a slaughterhouse. To sum it up: There was absolutely no basis for a deep integration of Russia with EU. It is rather astonishing how much and for how long the EU has continued to engage with Russia over the last 20 years.
> I'm not sure what membership in Council of Europe did for Russia. European Human Rights Court was somewhat visible but that's it.
This was of great benefit to the people of Russia as it protected them from the excesses of an authoritarian regime. The future will show how much they have now lost. Freedom of expression no longer exists even rudimentarily in Russia. Many civil rights activists had to flee into the West during the last two decades. As a representative for many, I would just like to mention Garry Kasparov.
From my experience you greatly overplay it. There was "some support" maybe, but definitely not "lots" of it.
In 2000s Russia no longer was in a very bad economic situation. But there was no integration. Yes there were all kinds of bells and whistles, such as academic exchange this, international program that; but you know, you can have these with any country in the world. They're not life changing - they are just some peer things. Russian life was affected very little by its neighbourhood with the EU and no real integration took place.
> Chechnya was turned into a slaughterhouse
I don't think it is true (what would you compare it to, Bosnia or Yemen?). However, it does show the attitude which got us where we are now.
>From my experience you greatly overplay it. There was "some support" maybe, but definitely not "lots" of it.
Some numbers from my country of origin: In 1990, West-Germany alone payed 12 billion D-Mark (~6 billion Euro) and an additional loan of 3 billion (~1.5 billion Euro) for the re-unification to the SU (officially for the withdrawal costs of the Red Army). In addition Germany supported Russia to join the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). Alone in 2020, German trade with Russia was covered by new export credit guarantees from the German state of 2.47 billion Euro; in this it was #1 (#2 Turkey: 1.93 bln, #3 USA: 1.25 bln, #4 China: 1.21 bln). -- How much else would be necessary to call it "a lot"?
> But there was no integration.
I would recommend reading the "Common Strategy of the European Union of 4 June 1999 on Russia": https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CEL... This text documents in detail the common understanding of the member states of the EU at that time regarding Russia. However, it was the Russian government that rejected the idea of an integration into a common European economic and legal area on the basis that Russia is special in so far as it is not only European, but European-Asian and wants to keep its independence. The politcal vison of Putin was not to join the EU at some point in the future, but to establish Russia as the hegemon of its own federation of states, the Commonwealth of Independent States.
To sum it up: The outstretched hand of the EU was rejected by Putin right at the beginning of his presidency for fundamental reasons. There was therefore no realistic chance of a closer relationship between the EU and Russia in the last two decades.
Are you saying that Russia is Sleeping Beauty? If so, why? If not, then what are you saying?
When Russian Federation could still be called a democracy it did not have that. Have you read the Sleeping Beauty fairy tale?