Is knowing the same thing as believing? Maybe I'm missing something, but a lot of this seems to hinge on an assumption that knowing something with absolute certainty is possible, and a meaningful hypothetical scenario in our human cognition.

Predictions (knowing) and their ensuing actions in a non-deterministic world are not necessarily isolated from the eventual outcome. I'm curious how much of the "willful ignorance" is actually avoidance of some sort of self-fulfilling prophecy.