Re:How elites misread public opinion
by gumby on Saturday June 18, 2022 @03:38PM
(#31793063)
> …Are opinion polls actually representative of what public opinion is - and more importantly, how the public will vote?
> It seems that on a lot of hot button issues … opinion polls show considerable support for [positions] that simply do not manifest when there are actual referenda on the issue…
What an excellent question. There are a couple of issues.
One is what is measured by public opinion surveys. Let’s say I ask “should roe be overturned?” Two people who think that roe is fine but the threshold should be moved might respond differently (“no — we just need to move the threshold” “yes — and replace it with the same but a different threshold”). The survey people know this but it’s very hard.
Second, is that the voting options are never clear cut. A simple referendum can include the problem above; when voting for a candidate you may not find one with the same attitude as you on your most important question, or you may survey with the majority on three topics but find a minority position more important to you.
> It seems that on a lot of hot button issues … opinion polls show considerable support for [positions] that simply do not manifest when there are actual referenda on the issue…
What an excellent question. There are a couple of issues.
One is what is measured by public opinion surveys. Let’s say I ask “should roe be overturned?” Two people who think that roe is fine but the threshold should be moved might respond differently (“no — we just need to move the threshold” “yes — and replace it with the same but a different threshold”). The survey people know this but it’s very hard.
Second, is that the voting options are never clear cut. A simple referendum can include the problem above; when voting for a candidate you may not find one with the same attitude as you on your most important question, or you may survey with the majority on three topics but find a minority position more important to you.