I guess it seems like the fed is actively trying to pop the housing bubble and drop prices. If that's the case then buying now seems like a bad idea and we should rent for a year first. But honestly we are moving to a new city and I told myself I was done renting and ready to buy. We are in a solid financial position to put a substantial amount down.

It's very hard to time any market, and particularly with a primary residence, most folks plan to stay in them for at least 3 years. It's entirely possible that you overpay today but if you make a smart purchase that you like, there's a pretty good chance your home value recovers in the long run.

I think the bubble talk is slightly overstated due to the increase in remote workers. That demand isn't going anywhere soon, which means prices aren't likely to come down much. The Fed is really trying to price out AirBnb and institutional investors, which only account for a small percentage of the market anyway.

What if this is not a bubble?

You can't really time the market. So buy something you want at a price your comfortable with.

If you just moved to a new city would you benefit from waiting anyways? Do you know the neighborhoods you'd want to live in?

Ask any financial professional and they'll tell you if you're trying to buy a house you really want, they'd say not to wait. It's hard enough to find a home you really want and you can't predict future conditions. You might not "get a good deal" but you'll have your dream home. If you were just flipping houses then waiting is the right move.

You’re a good example of how humans are not simple logical and rational decision makers. And also that houses are more than hedonic compositions of goods to be traded solely for investment.

Yeah, I worked with a realtor once that kept referring to houses as "the product" as though it was some profound philosophical insight. I wanted to punch him in the face.

I don't think Powell's words mean he is trying to pop a bubble, just to slow down price increases for a while to bring prices in line with historical norms.

"to bring prices in line with historical norms."

How can you determine if that is the correct/desired course of action?

They publicly state their desired course of action each year. They've historically held an economic policy of maintaining perpetual ~2% inflation over long periods of time. Inflation is higher than that now, so they're trying to bring it back down. For more details see:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/monetary-polic...

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/mone...