But which is the larger contributor? We of course will probably never be able to answer that with certainty, but which is more likely to be the larger factor?
> Your biggest mistake is assuming that race itself is a predictor of political affiliation.
But obviously there do exist correlations between race/ethnicity and political affiliation, both in the US and most other countries too. Almost never are they absolute (a group might split politically 60-40 or even 90-10 but almost never 100-0), and the correlations often change over time-the majority of group X might vote for one party now, but some decades ago they voted for the other instead, and maybe in a few more decades they might even swing back. Are you actually disputing this rather obvious fact?
In a world with established voter suppression efforts and a lack of evidence for voter fraud I see no reason to enact Voter ID. There’s no clear benefit and obvious downsides.