Re:Monty Hall Problem
by Jtsummers on Thursday June 09, 2022 @03:59PM
(#31686003)
No, it's not. The point of the problem is that it's better to switch than not given the scenario presented. Whether he knows or not doesn't actually change anything, he does reveal a goat. Whether it was luck or deliberate makes no difference.
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Switching doesn't change where the prize is more likely to be. That's not how the Monty Hall Problem works. It's the host giving you information about what's happening behind the scenes, by choosing a door to open and you knowing how the host operates.
Whether you end up switching or not, the other opened door is 2/3 likely to contain the prize and the door you picked originally has a 1/3. Whether you switch or not, doesn't change the odds.