Citation needed.
The US Gov literally said the current (in 2008) high price are due to demand/supply mismatch and "most industry experts contend that oil resources are plentiful ... Drilling activity is at a high level" [1]. As in the price will go down.
OPEC only needs to control its members a tiny bit. Oil is sold on the margin and so a tiny demand/supply mismatch means a large price difference [2].
[1]: https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/research/eclett/... [2]: https://www.vox.com/2015/1/5/7493799/oil-prices-chart
Regardless, I think you just proved my point. Supply/demand determines prices not OPEC.
If OPEC controlled prices they wouldn’t have dropped 80% post-2008. Prices were so low that capacity was taken offline and some countries has serious financial difficulties.
That doesn't sounds like a monopolistic market.
Sure, and I'd love to have $1B, but that doesn't mean I'll get it..
Yes there are time dynamics - ramping up production, production delays due to maintenance, prices changes you can't predict. Nobody has a crystal ball.
And OPEC can't even control it's own members, so I'm highly skeptical anyone else follows them.
Humans are great at seeing patterns where there are none. Oil skyrocketed in 2008, everyone said it would never go down, then it crashed below $20. That doesn't seem like the kind of market where suppliers control the price.