I don’t think sanctions will make Russia stop the war, the only thing that will is a large enough flow of dead soldiers coming back home. But it will impact its ability to finance this war, its military capabilities (replace hardware), and potentially (though not clear to me), create opinion backlash in Russia.
See e.g. https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/China-turns-to-Russi...
Before the UK left the EU, there was technically one such pipeline from Norway, but it was mainly used to supply an oil export terminal located in the UK, rather than for importing oil into the UK for domestic consumption.
Europe expects to rely on sea transport to import oil after foregoing use of oil from the Russian pipelines. This is why the landlocked countries of Hungary, Czechia, and Slovakia were concerned during the sanction talks, though Hungary's Orban has exaggerated the concern to obstruct sanctions and/or to score dubious Realpolitik points.
Hungary's only alternative is the Adria pipeline that starts at a port in Croatia; it can be used in either direction and has sufficient capacity to meet current demands. Czechia's only alternative is the IKL pipeline that starts at a pipeline junction and tank farm in Vohburg (near Ingolstadt) in Germany. Slovakia's only alternative (if my research is accurate) is to be supplied through Hungary, using the Adria pipeline and a soviet-era connection between Hrkovce and Százhalombatta to be run in reverse mode.
The EU has about 10x the nominal GDP of Russia. Is a 10% contraction of the EU for one year equivalent to the entire Russian population reverting to subsistence farming for a year?
Also: I should’ve thought of this before, but cost to each party isn’t the right metric — it’s what does the EU gain at what cost to the EU (and likewise for each party), so the question is probably more like:
Q1) does this situation look like a warmongering power trying to rebuilding a lost empire? If so, what’s the cost of sitting back and doing nothing?
A1) let’s say p=0.1, €3T/year
Q2) [insert more hypotheticals, probability estimates, and costs here, a real analysis wouldn’t fit in a comment]
Finally: multiply the chances by the costs, add them all up, that’s what it makes sense for the EU pay.
> If we read between the lines, we're also at the brink of a massive food crisis
We’re not even close to that, despite the breathless headlines and the fact the Russian forces interfered with a significant quantity of food production and are blockading the ports that would normally export it from Ukraine.
Hell, even the UK isn’t that screwed and they’re short of farm hands to pick crops and vets to certify the abattoirs because of Brexit.
They're also friendly with countries like china and india for the rest of the things they need, and have gas to export/sell to them to be able to pay for all that stuff.
I'm more afraid that Janez and Hans and Pierre will have to pick up crops to survive, and not Boris.
> Hell, even the UK isn’t that screwed and they’re short of farm hands to pick crops and vets to certify the abattoirs because of Brexit.
And it's funny, because this is a purely economical issue... pay more and you'll get workers to do the work for you. You cannot pay romanian paychecks to british workers.
I’m not asking you to judge the likelihood of two things, nor their consequences, I’m asking you to tell me if you think they are equivalent. Does A=B, where A is a 10% recession, etc.
> Russia produces enough food, that we (=rest of europe) have problems if they don't export
False.
Russia exported €1.8 billion agricultural products to the EU last year:
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2022/7292...
The EU agriculture sector is about 1.5% of its $US 17,000 billion nominal GDP, i.e. $US 255 billion nominal, which at current exchange rates is €237 billion, or to put it another way, what it gets from Russia is 0.75% by value of what it makes itself.
I’m old enough to remember when the EU’s biggest problem was colossal over-production of food, and it’s agricultural policy being called a market-distorting subsidy.
This is also backed up by EU countries having access to more food per person than Russia. Not that it matters because both are about 1000 kcal/day higher than actually needed: https://ourworldindata.org/food-supply (because, in case you skimmed over the bit at the top, hypotheticals about what constitutes “equal harm”).
> they also have enough oil/gas, that again, we have problems, if they don't export it
Yes (hence Hungary realpolitik), but not insurmountable problems, and we should be moving away from those fuels anyway even without this war.
> they also have most of the raw materials available locally plus a lot of companies that produce everything needed for basic infrastructure.
Define “basic infrastructure”.
Then ask yourself why Russian tank production halted.
> have gas to export/sell to them to be able to pay for all that stuff.
Not on the scale they need to keep their economy running.
> pay more and you'll get workers to do the work for you.
Vets are licensed. The number required is greater than all of the ones in the UK.
As for crops, the farmers have tried this and get basically no takers. Can they try again for even more money? Only if the supermarket are willing to pay more for the food, which requires the customers to be willing to pay more for the food, which they can’t because too many are already short of money.
I wouldn’t know.
But I can say the fungibility (or not) of oil is necessarily equivalent for both importers and exporters.
Consider the implications if it were trivial to change markets: Russia losing X units of exports per year to the EU and increasing exports to China and India by a total of X, means China and India are buying X fewer units from not-Russia, which means the EU could buy X more units on the everyone-else marketplace.
Realistically, Turkey China and India are mostly exporters. When Europe and the US go into recession, they won't need as much oil because they won't be exporting as much (they are the dominant importers)... and that likely means that Russia turns off wells when their storage fills up (soon). Those wells are slow to restart. The rest of OPEC replaces their oil (at somewhat higher prices) for the next few years.
What is an immediate concern is food, oil, and fertilizer not being exported from Ukraine (can't plant/harvest or ship) for much of the developing world. Turkey, Egypt, Sri Lanka... Sudan are all very dependent on wheat, sunflower oil, and fertilizer from eastern Ukraine. Even India will be quite affected. See how evil EU starves the poor! Only beautiful Russia can save them!
The problem here is... are we really stopping the conflict by eg. banning import of russian oil? Russia is just exporting it to eg. India and China, them having cheaper oil is making their economies stronger, russia still gets the money, and europes economy is going down. So, we're hurting our economy to not hurt the russian one while helping china and india.