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Re:40k coin tosses yield ambiguous evidence for dynamical bias by williamkuszmaul on Friday June 03, 2022 @11:49AM (#31609950)
If the coin were unbiased, we could compute the exact probability of getting 10231 or more heads with 20000 flips as:

"sum (20000 choose x)/2^20000 for x from 10231 to 20000",

which Wolfram Alpha evaluates to 0.00056.

The probability of getting a number of flips that differs from 10000 by at least 231 is twice that, so about 0.001.

So, in fact, the probability of this happening by dumb luck is about 1/1000. That's pretty strong evidence.

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