Re:How to make decisions like a poker player
by nightpool on Thursday June 02, 2022 @09:46AM
(#31594837)
OP messed up their numbers—they probably meant 5% chance for $1000 ($50 EV to match .5*$100) or similar. But I think their point is still clear
Re:How to make decisions like a poker player
by jdmoreira on Thursday June 02, 2022 @09:41AM
(#31594772)
The payout is exactly the same but what op means is that you need less "50% of 100%" bets than "10% chance at $1000" to reach the same payout.
1 in 2 for the first one will pay out. and 1 in 10 for the second one will pay out.
Variance is higher for second than for first.
Re:How to make decisions like a poker player
by westward on Thursday June 02, 2022 @09:48AM
(#31594855)
I think the questioner is asking if
"50% chance for $100 is the same as a 10% chance at $1000"
should be
"50% chance for $100 is the same as a 10% chance at $500"
Re:How to make decisions like a poker player
by jdmoreira on Thursday June 02, 2022 @09:53AM
(#31594918)
ah yes, of course. You are correct
At first I was confused because of my mental rule of thumb that in a Bernoulli choice, p=0.5 is highest variance.
But that is when the payoff is 1, of course!
When it's not, we're really looking at payoff² * p * (1-p) and indeed the second situation has much higher variance.
Is it though?