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Re:How to make decisions like a poker player by calahad on Thursday June 02, 2022 @09:36AM (#31594696)
"Expected Value is complicated because a 50% chance for $100 is the same as a 10% chance at $1000"

Is it though?

Re:How to make decisions like a poker player by nightpool on Thursday June 02, 2022 @09:46AM (#31594837)
OP messed up their numbers—they probably meant 5% chance for $1000 ($50 EV to match .5*$100) or similar. But I think their point is still clear
Re:How to make decisions like a poker player by jdmoreira on Thursday June 02, 2022 @09:41AM (#31594772)
The payout is exactly the same but what op means is that you need less "50% of 100%" bets than "10% chance at $1000" to reach the same payout.

1 in 2 for the first one will pay out. and 1 in 10 for the second one will pay out.

Variance is higher for second than for first.

Re:How to make decisions like a poker player by westward on Thursday June 02, 2022 @09:48AM (#31594855)
I think the questioner is asking if

"50% chance for $100 is the same as a 10% chance at $1000"

should be

"50% chance for $100 is the same as a 10% chance at $500"

Re:How to make decisions like a poker player by jdmoreira on Thursday June 02, 2022 @09:53AM (#31594918)
ah yes, of course. You are correct
Re:How to make decisions like a poker player by kqr on Thursday June 02, 2022 @10:59AM (#31595708)
At first I was confused because of my mental rule of thumb that in a Bernoulli choice, p=0.5 is highest variance.

But that is when the payoff is 1, of course!

When it's not, we're really looking at payoff² * p * (1-p) and indeed the second situation has much higher variance.

Re:How to make decisions like a poker player by calahad on Thursday June 02, 2022 @05:26PM (#31600701)
"The payout is exactly the same"

Again I ask, is it really?