These kinds of changes always start in some sort of localized group or community. While it's wise to not assume that every small movement is going to turn into a large one, it's still worth paying attention to what's going on at the fringes so that you don't get caught with your pants down.

As another anecdote, Facebook has died out amongst my peer group, it used to be heavily used for event planning amongst friends but now it's been abandoned despite no good replacements in the wings because nobody is on Facebook to see your events. Instead we are back to using text messages and emails.

They did it to themselves. The minute your feed/notifications went so ad-filled and algorithm-driven that you couldn't find events and announcements before they happened... Facebook killed the golden goose.

Taiwanese even use it as some sort of blogging platform.

And those countries have a much lower ARPU. Facebook staying dominant in those countries is at best a Pyrrhic victory.

> That's in your local bubble. In some countries Facebook is no. 1 and on same level or even more important as Google Maps for businesses. Wished it was not the case though.

Facebook is an American company, if it fails in that market, it will most likely eventually fail globally as well. Orkut being super popular in India and Brazil didn't save it.