Re:Ask HN: Will creative people have jobs in 10 years?
by LrnByTeach on Thursday June 02, 2022 @07:49PM
(#31602146)
Copilot ( and others in it's class) is a paradigm shift:
What is software development: let AI generate most code then REVIEW code for accuracy, completion, security etc.. and test it
What is NOT software development : "solving age old problems" via Stackoverflow
By 2030 tools like Copilot create 'two-tier programmers'
-Tier 1 (squeeze 10x from Copilot) : writes 'prompts' and 'function signatures' for AI tools likes of CoPilot as part of technical design, from which Copilot will generate 80% of the code
-Tier 2: will check completeness & execute generated test suite
best programmers will be in still in demand in 10 years.
Best programmers (who understand requirements well and write concise code, etc..) are only less than 1/3 of total programmer population as of TODAY. What 2/3 of the total programmers doing today can be done by 20% of this current 2/3 group at similar ( or better) quality with the help of COPILOT like tools.
This tedious task of finding answers will be the job of GPT Codex/Copilot in near future
Future of Coding is AI pair programming
Between 2025 -2030 GPT-8 Codex/Copilot kind of tools enable developers write "better" code, regardless of their SKILL LEVEL ( this is with the 2/3 programmer population as of TODAY).
Even in 2030 we still need best programmers, whose programming patterns will be still be input to GPT-10 kind of tools.
Like "Peak oil" , "Peak automobiles" ( we are almost there), we will be reaching "Peak programmers" in few short years, then decline from there onwards.