Some people just don't like risk. Lets say that you believe there is a 25% chance that this is the big one where the American centered world order comes to an end, it will happen sooner or later but this could be it. How much would you be willing to bet on that? The average returns are great, but if you miss it by 5 or 10 years now you lost all of that. That is if the paper you got afterwards have any meaning, a big enough bust will make it hard to cash out any gains.