Re:How This Ends
by jbay808 on Sunday May 22, 2022 @04:12PM
(#31472268)
I'm not saying that you can time the market. It's a lot more nuanced than that.
* You don't know the long term path of interest rates. Even the Fed Chair doesn't, because they don't know what will happen with inflation. (They do know the short term timing though, which is why they're not supposed to trade.)
* Even if you're expecting a correction, you don't know when the correction will occur or by how much. It could stay aloft like Wile-E-Coyote after the fundamentals drop out, or crash early in anticipation of the fundamentals changing.
* And when it does fall, you don't know where it will land, nor how many times it will bounce along the way down.
* You don't know the long term path of interest rates. Even the Fed Chair doesn't, because they don't know what will happen with inflation. (They do know the short term timing though, which is why they're not supposed to trade.)
* Even if you're expecting a correction, you don't know when the correction will occur or by how much. It could stay aloft like Wile-E-Coyote after the fundamentals drop out, or crash early in anticipation of the fundamentals changing.
* And when it does fall, you don't know where it will land, nor how many times it will bounce along the way down.