It seems to me that with the pandemic ebbing, that the only systemic shock going on right now is the war in Ukraine. Russia can't sustain either its offensive or its separation from global fuel markets for very long without collapsing. Developed economies aren't sitting on giant piles of toxic assets or collapsing consumer demand and employment is still sky high. I don't see how this goes much beyond an asset correction. We've only seen companies floating on untenable valuations get hurt thus far and it seems unlikely that will be a contagion to the rest of the economy.