The modern world needs it. We've created ridiculous systems that - wrongly - believe they're beyond specific forces of both human nature and market economics, and I can't wait for the shit to hit the fan and the music to stop. A sharp, harsh, painful, miserable, unbearable correction needs to happen to remind wealthy, middle-class, and poor people that fundamental economics cannot be ignored.
The more painful it is for every group, the better. Trauma is the best teacher.
At a very basic level if people get up in the morning and go to work, and continue to want cars and tvs and houses and vacations, it's hard to see the economy really going to hell. We've had many scares over the last 100 years and we keep chugging along with a bump here and there, because people keep going to work and keep buying cars and tvs and houses and vacations. We just went through a global pandemic and are basically fine.
It feels pretty resilient.... unless we make a hard turn into communism, which appears to be a sure fire way to destroy an economy.
However I doubt it will be like the 30s. Back then it was really slow to transmit the information of who needs what stuff, and which firm is looking for people. With modern communications the shock should be less.
This is sociopathic.
> needs to happen to remind wealthy, middle-class, and poor people that fundamental economics cannot be ignored.
Really? Real lives need to be sacrificed to a god of spreadsheets? Do you wish this suffering on your own family as well?
Hindsight changes a lot of things. For one the market recovered from all previous crashes, with one major exception.
I traded through 2008. It felt apocalyptic. I got a text message from a guy at Lehman on the Monday, surprised he was now out of a job. There was a queue of people at Northern Rock.
We knew that a lot of bad things were about to come out, basically things that had been papered over to fix dotcom. The whole subprime thing was predictable, I went to a lunch at Goldman's where they basically just said it out loud, the subprime market is gonna explode and maybe take some other things with it.
But what we have now feels like it's sweeping even that under the rug. Growth didn't bounce back hugely afterwards, it's been mild. But interest rates have hit a low nobody that imagined. The whole period since 2008 has been exceptional. A lot of things that seemed like frothy excess went on for a long time. A lot of stuff that should have died in 2008 got to live.
So yeah it feels really big, but no climax thus far. No Lehman yet, and no Madoff. A couple of things sort of felt like maybe they would cascade, but didn't, eg Bill Huang's fund going down. For the GFC we had the two Bear Stearns funds going down as a preshock. Not sure if Luna really qualifies, given the amount of crazy things that happen in crypto.