The conventional wisdom is that political ads don't change people's minds about who to vote for, but they do change people's minds about whether to bother voting (or voting for a major party and not a throwaway third-party).

I wonder if it’s a self fulfilling prophecy to some extent. Like big money follows the tailwinds. Republican enthusiasm is high right now, maybe big democrat money isn’t being spent this cycle because of that. Idk, I have absolutely no data to back this up.

This cycle is a little different from other recent ones, though. Democrats are in charge of the White House, both houses of Congress, big media, big business (everything except the Supreme Court), and people's lives are still getting worse in ways they can't ignore. Money can buy messaging, but I don't think the truly-undecided public are buying it.

I vote independent often and had considered voting democrat a few times. The last few years have made me hope that party goes the way of the Whigs.

> Honestly has anyone ever been swayed by a political ad?

You may wish to 'enbiggen' your circle of friends and start associating with people on the left-hand side of the bell curve. For example, folks who take horse deworming medication for COVID:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivermectin_during_the_COVID-19...

Further, modern propaganda does not try to convince ('The Russian "Firehose of Falsehood" Propaganda Model'):

* https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE198.html