Re:Sweden to Apply for NATO Membership
by jmyeet on Monday May 16, 2022 @04:47PM
(#31402961)
> It was a gamble. Would Ukraine fold, or not?
It doesn't matter if Ukraine folded. Why? Because what happens next?
If Russia installs a puppet regime and leaves, how long does that puppet regime last?
If Russia stays and maintains a military occupation, it faces the prospect of a decades-long counter-insurgency from a geographically large country with 44 million potential insurgents who are really unified by their hatred of Russians. Post-WW2 insurgencies have had an incredibly high chance of success against even far more numerous and technologically superior occupying forces. It's a bad bet.
It doesn't matter if Ukraine folded. Why? Because what happens next?
If Russia installs a puppet regime and leaves, how long does that puppet regime last?
If Russia stays and maintains a military occupation, it faces the prospect of a decades-long counter-insurgency from a geographically large country with 44 million potential insurgents who are really unified by their hatred of Russians. Post-WW2 insurgencies have had an incredibly high chance of success against even far more numerous and technologically superior occupying forces. It's a bad bet.