The Javelin has multiple tricks up its sleeve to defeat sophisticated armor and Russian armor is just behind the curve. It's a literal arms race to add more layers of defense and more layers of attack and right now, NATO is far ahead.
But Ukraine is advancing. So they are winning anyway which indicates that something is going wrong on Russia side and it fits the outcome.
I would argue that based on that you can assume that the Story to be more true than just 50/50
A scaled down model of the Möhne dam where the bouncing bomb was used can be found at the BRE site in Watford on your way to the lunch canteen. https://bregroup.com/ipark/parks/england/visit/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bouncing_bomb#Re-creating_the_...
Take a look at this graphic:
https://sites.breakingmedia.com/uploads/sites/3/2021/07/imag...
The source for this is an advertisement for a Rheinmetal brand APS. So treat it like you would any marketing material.
Nonetheless, if it’s even remotely accurate, I would not want to be part of a tank crew that is visible to surveillance aircraft multiple countries away.
I get the impression these APS systems were designed with low intensity “anti-terror” operations in mind. They’ll do a decent job killing an RPG fired from across the street but they light you up like a Christmas tree. Not a problem if you’re battling ISIS but a significant liability against opponents with modern surveillance capability. Also they’re useless against top attack munitions which seem to be remarkably effective in Ukraine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shaped_charge
The penetration distance is proportional to the diameter of the charge (counterintuitive; you'd expect the height), and can be up to 7x as large. So a ~5 inch charge shown in the film can penetrate up to about 3 feet of solid steel.
Also, all of our known defenses against shaped charged rely on the assumption that the same spot won't get hit twice. Composite armor breaks and deflects the geometry of the jet through its deformation; reactive armor relies on a mini-explosion to defeat the jet. This has interesting implications in a world of drones and precision-guided munitions, and in fact the Javelin missiles we've been shipping to Ukraine have double warheads, the first to destroy the armor and the second to destroy the vehicle.