The value of ads drops during a recession, and things are looking more-and-more bearish this year.
It's completely nuts for 'one guy' to spend $40B on something, too much possibility for self delusion.
Musk should have had Private Equity lined up before the offer as part of a consortium. They would have called out his bullshit.
It's really, really telling that he did not.
Imagine Musk having to sit a table with 'mere bankers' telling him he doesn't know what he is talking about.
It's easy to be full of bluster when you're sitting on top of zillions in inflated valuation.
Had you posted under any other topic relating to Musk before today, you would have had replies here claiming "Musk is highly intelligent and helped create at least 3, multi-billion dollar companies, with 2 more in the pipeline (neuralink and boring). How dare you question his genius".
Since there aren't, I'm using this comment as a reminder against confirmation bias.
Those two thing can be true at the same time.
I follow many VC Twitter accounts and it seems to me, even the 'nice' ones are giant turds when it comes to any kind of social or communitarian understanding of the world.
But they understand startups very well.
It's common among successful people, I think, to be really great in their core competency, to have fairly astute understanding of other things and yet be completely glib at the same time, and lack the self awareness to recognize it, supported by the fact that 'nobody challenges them' on anything.
IIRC, Musk makes Twitter a 100% cash offer. Twitter accepts, but writes the deal such that if either side pulls out of the deal, then a $1 billion penalty will be applied.
Musk goes to the banks and secures a $20 billion-ish loan, putting TSLA as collateral.
Musk starts to sell TSLA for the other $20 billion of cash. Stock tanks as a result, only ~$8 billion sold on public filing documents.
Musk runs around looking for another $12 billion for the last week or so.
And now we have today where it looks like he is failing his side of the deal. If Musk lost the $20 billion-ish from the banks due to TSLA being too low, it makes sense for him to give up.
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All that is going on right now is Musk trying to blame Twitter for the failed deal, so that he avoids the $1 billion penalty written into the contract.