Most of his ideas aren't even something anyone should deliver. Hyperloop and Boring Company are terrible ideas.
Meanwhile everything else is over-promise/under-deliver.
Compared to the marketing bluster I see from the old aerospace companies and greenwashing from older car companies, however, he’s a spectacular breath of fresh air with his honesty, openness, and willingness to say things have a less than 100% chance of success.
And I say that despite agreeing with you about Hyperloop and TBC.
He promises a lot, but to say he didn't also achieve a lot would be lying.
Not sure how much cheaper SpaceX launches are for comparable payloads and orbits. I'd suspect they are, with e.g. Ariane developed for other thongs than LEO launches. As SpaceX isn't public wr don't have any reliable numbers. Based on some old leaked material, it is less than sure whether or not SpaceX is coonsiderably cheaper than the competition. Regardless, SpaceX is impressive.
If Starlink is actually sustainable and profitable has to be seen, it could as well just be a way to push SpaceX profitabiliy further down the road through a Starlink IPO. Now way to tell either way.
The direct competitor to SpaceX is the Space Launch System [0], with a cost of over two billion per launch. SpaceX charges below 100M$ [1] (and has cheaper options available [2]) and you can actually buy it right now (EDIT: although it's true that Ariane is in the same ballpark).
> If Starlink is actually sustainable and profitable has to be seen, it could as well just be a way to push SpaceX profitabiliy further down the road through a Starlink IPO. Now way to tell either way.
Whether a business can survive in the long term is never 100%. Still, you, as an average consumer, can order a satellite dish and get fast and mostly reliable internet for a reasonable-ish price right now. I'd say that checks as delivered.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System
You forgot Ariane Space. And the 100 million ballpark numbet is for Ariane 5, a rocket initially developed for a European shuttle program and not commercial, cheap satelite launches.
Edit: Starlonk is cheaper than alternative satelite provoders. Whether or not this is selling dollars for cents is the question, one that cannot be answered by Starlonk's existence itself.
Ariane V, delta, and soyuz launches are all cheaper per kilogram than SpaceX.
Look on Wikipedia, the sideboard quotes cost per launch as:
> Over US$2 billion excluding development (estimate)
I'm not aware of the pricing of Soyuz and Ariane V, though.
Both of which are much more SpaceX alternatives than SLS.
You're also understating Tesla's significance. No surprise, I guess.
I mean, I don't think he's Tony Stark either, but stop cherry picking.
But it's still not a good idea to treat any of his announcements or ideas as anything near a sure thing. His bullshitting still has a fairly high chance of turning out as bullshit.
"Steve Jobs delivers? Ha! The Lisa, Apple III, Pixar Computer, Next Computer. Checkmate!"
More background if you’ve not come across intermittent reinforcement
https://www.nirandfar.com/want-to-hook-your-users-drive-them...
Innovation does not mean only "coming up with something never yet seen". This is rare. Innovation also means making things more streamlined, efficient, more widely available, more capable.
Starlink is a huge boon in places like Mariupol right now. Its capability matters, even though a random person from London can get cheaper service by fibre.