El Salvador expected to default as Bitcoin plummets

Re:El Salvador expected to default as Bitcoin plummets by throw8383833jj on Wednesday May 11, 2022 @12:49PM (#31342542)

i know this will get downvoted heavily, but considering how rapidly fiat currencies are loosing value, I'd say the investment in bitcoin is an excellent long term bet and even by jan 2023, likely to look good. history will judge.

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Re:El Salvador expected to default as Bitcoin plummets by taylodl on Wednesday May 11, 2022 @03:26PM (#31344598)

How do you figure? The price of gold today in USD is up 4.4% of where it was from the highs 10 years ago. That's not indicative of a fiat currency rapidly losing value.

If you consider the price of gold today vs. where it was at its lowest point over the previous 10 years (USD had most value, just before Trump took office) then gold has gone up 42.76% (meaning the USD has lost considerable value since 2016). You can look at the charts and see when the trade war started with China and see when the Pandemic hit. Even so, since Biden has been in office the USD has been gaining in value (as measured by gold) and given the action of the Fed last week it will gain even more value (in fact that's been the financial news the past few weeks - the USD gaining value). Again this doesn't support the claim that fiat currencies are rapidly losing value.

I'm getting my information on the price of gold here - https://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html

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Re:El Salvador expected to default as Bitcoin plummets by throw8383833jj on Wednesday May 11, 2022 @05:14PM (#31345868)

i calculated the average increase of roughly 7%-8% for the last 20 years, according to the site you mentioned (+490% over 20 years). And, you look at inflation of almost anything from housing to gas, most of it averaged 4-4.5%. We hardly need a basket of goods to average across anymore since most of people's earning now go to housing, at least for the latest generation. Case shiller shows housing was already going up at 4% per year on average for the last 20 years, and that was before the pandemic. So, yeah, the dollar and all the other fiats, for the last 20 years have been crashing at least 4% per year. and the CPI, as it was calculating using the older methods (before congress told them to start under-reporting inflation) can confirm this. You can find out all about this on http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts if you read all the foot notes you can find out inflation measurements have changed in order to under report it.

So, we had at least 4% pre pandemic and now closer to 10-11% (real CPI as reported on shadowstats, is always about 2% higher than the fake BLS numbers) per year though it looks like it will diminish.

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Re:El Salvador expected to default as Bitcoin plummets by taylodl on Thursday May 12, 2022 @09:15AM (#31353662)

So, yeah, the dollar and all the other fiats, for the last 20 years have been crashing at least 4% per year.

That's not a crash, that's more-or-less by design. Currency, i.e. money, is engineered to be inflationary and economists consider the optimum inflation rate to be 2%-4% per year. For the past 20 years we've been on the high side of that target, but we're on target. Inflationary currency encourages investment and spending. Saving currency in the bank is not producing value (there's even a parable about this).

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Re:El Salvador expected to default as Bitcoin plummets by throw8383833jj on Thursday May 12, 2022 @06:29PM (#31360858)

there's already a vast oversupply of investment money chasing far too few opportunities: take a look at the s&p500, it's only returning 1.3% dividends. that tells you PE ratios are through the roof and that there's too much capital chasing too few opportunities. so, there's no need to "encourage investment and spending".

Society would have a lot to gain from a government that didn't default on it's obligation of "money as a store of value". there's a large need for store of value, especially with the aging population.

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Re:El Salvador expected to default as Bitcoin plummets by taylodl on Friday May 13, 2022 @09:28AM (#31367323)

Money is most emphatically not a store of value and hasn't been in over 100 years nor do you want it to be. Hoarded money has little value to an economy. What you want money to do is be used to build or expand manufacturing, build or expand shipping infrastructure, communications infrastructure, expand agriculture, and so forth and so on. "Investment" is a much broader term than just buying equities. Do something with your money! As I said, there's even a parable about this.

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