You've already got yours so what's the worst that can happen?
— Charlie Munger
He has evidence of excessive risk taking (Tiger Global's returns), and an incentive structure that makes it logical for them to behave this way. That alone isn't "baseless." Also, it's Tiger Global, not Tiger Direct.
Loss does not prove excessive risk, even excessive loss. There is always a risk of loss in any investment.
Whether this was 99% going to happen, or Tiger Direct was very safe and this is a 1/10000 case of bad luck cannot be determined by looking at the amount lost.
How are Tiger Global’s incentives different from any other VC? Even the majority of hedge funds have a 2+20 structure with similar incentives.
From the article.
=>Tiger Global’s hedge fund assets have been so hard hit that the outfit has in four months erased about two-thirds of its gains since its launch in 2001.
=> that’s just twice the return they would have received by investing in the S&P 500 over the same 21-year period
Not sure how to interpret these numbers.
Still sounds pretty good.
Its more like they've been making mistakes over years which seem to have culminated in one event this quarter.