Re:Ask HN: Predictions on Crypto?
by mikewarot on Tuesday May 10, 2022 @09:17PM
(#31334767)
In the short term, I expect the highly leveraged offshore Bitcoin exchanges to make a series of increasingly deep margin calls. These will place more stress on the "stable" coins. I expect them to collapse, or take losses of 90%+
I expect Bitcoin to take a large hit. I expect the amount of mining to drastically drop as it becomes unprofitable to do so. This might lead to a 51% event and a hard fork and/or collapse.
In the long term, if it survives, I expect BitCoin to emerge with a much lower value. This can be either because of a new lower equilibrium found with the cost of mining, OR as alternatives to proof of work are adopted.
However -- The US dollar might take a huge hit as well due to the ever increasing consequences of our outsourcing of our supply chain here in the US. It may be that in terms of numbers (not value of goods purchased) you might find the BTC-USD price remaining relatively stable as the dollar inflates away it's value.
I expect Bitcoin to take a large hit. I expect the amount of mining to drastically drop as it becomes unprofitable to do so. This might lead to a 51% event and a hard fork and/or collapse.
In the long term, if it survives, I expect BitCoin to emerge with a much lower value. This can be either because of a new lower equilibrium found with the cost of mining, OR as alternatives to proof of work are adopted.
However -- The US dollar might take a huge hit as well due to the ever increasing consequences of our outsourcing of our supply chain here in the US. It may be that in terms of numbers (not value of goods purchased) you might find the BTC-USD price remaining relatively stable as the dollar inflates away it's value.