Cloud is much more than hardware though, it’s security APIs and object storage, networking etc; things that used to require a human to configure. Cloud offers about 80% of what physical hardware provided before, but it was enough that nearly all people moved to the cloud.

Anyway, I think you miss my point, a lot of dev work is either creative in its core (web design) or gluing APIs together.

No-code can get you a really long way in theory, how would that not be a commodity at that point?

It only needs to be 80% useful and it will be ubiquitous.