It’s not a car company, it’s a battery+software company with some wheels (literally) attached, hence part of the high valuation. It took me a while to realize this, had I put my money on this back then I would have had more money right now (10x times, I’d say).

The likes of Mercedes and VW are orders of magnitude behind, both when it comes to batteries and especially when it comes to software

Batteries are coming from Panasonic. Other OEMs have working EVs as well. And Tesla is way to small in terms of economic foot print that its disappearance would make a dent. Economics, not on the stock market.

Nothing about Tesla is strategic. SpaceX is different, sure. But with the exception of a yet-to-come lunar mission and astronaut trabsportation to the ISS the "West" got needed stuff into orbit just fine.

No other major car-maker has been able to come close to Tesla when it comes to the sleekness of their software and (especially that) when it comes to the cars' autonomy, Tesla is in a class of its own. And it's not for lack of trying, the Germans have already poured tens of billions of euros (at least) into the EV market.

Autonomous driving is totally unrelated to EVs, an ICE powered car can be as (non-)autonomous as an EV one. There was a nice thread recently about Mercedes liability regarding "autonomous" driving.

Well, that the "sleakness2 of software is a thing now when it comes to cars might make an Apple car difficult, the "sleek software" crowd is covered already. And there I was build quality, ride comfort and maintenance costs were also important when it comes to cars... Stupid me. But then I'm German, not sure if me driving French and old British cars offsets my ingrained sense of superiority of German car brands.

But yes, I agree Tesla is on its own in tremendously over selling its self driving tech.

> No other major car-maker has been able to come close to Tesla when it comes to the sleekness of their software and (especially that) when it comes to the cars' autonomy

Nobody cares about the software besides HN type people and the average user puts something like 40 miles per day on their car.

A far cry from "strategic asset" for the west, but you sure can program the car to make fart noises when you honk...

This is a very strong narrative making the rounds. Unfortunately it is not quite so. The batteries Tesla uses are a commodity - they are partnered with Panasonic and more recently the Chinese CATL (these guys do actual battery research, you know, with chemicals and lab coats).

Certainly packaging Panasonic rolls into 2170s gives them a nice edge but it isn't exactly rocket science.

The Giga press is made by the Italian Idra Group. They have bought them out at the moment but anybody can start nabbing them for themselves if they got a spare $30m laying around.

Tesla is certainly "good at engineering", but their advantage is not really in original IP so much as organizational agility. Perhaps the incumbents are too bureaucratic to adapt but I wouldn't count them out just yet.

As for software, give me a break.

P.S. - I am actually a fan just not a fanboy.

Not a fanboy by any stretch, as I'm totally anti-EV (I find the regressive taxes supporting this industry quite repulsive, to be honest), I've written down just what I thought was happening/what the reality on the ground was.

> o much as organizational agility

That's why I insisted on the "better software" part, that's where much of their advantage comes from.

Maybe the Germans and the French can also source their batteries from the Chinese but they just haven't been able to put them to good use the way Tesla did (and does). For example right now Renault is selling a 20,000 euro EV (produced in China, of course) [1] which has atrocious autonomy, to say nothing of the fact that it feels very small. And that is supposed to be one of their main vehicles when it comes to targeting the EV mass-market, from one of the biggest car makers in the world. It's a complete joke.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dacia_Spring

Great, so now that we have established that nobody is a fanboy let us objectively take a gander at the current situation.

Here is Doug Demuro reviewing the Volkswagen ID Buzz:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4JraQ6KrVM

tl;dr: It is fine.

Here he is reviewing the Rivian: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYrunRy8hmw

tl;dr: It is excellent. In fact he says "coolest pickup truck ever made". People who were excited about the cyber truck and know cars would rather get this one.

> Maybe the Germans and the French can also source their batteries from the Chinese but they just haven't been able to put them to good use the way Tesla did (and does).

Well.. I don't know about the French. ;)

But Volkswagen will make you an electrified Golf just fine. And that is the best selling car in Europe. Toyota will make you a Yaris and a boring beige Prius.

The bz4x is out now and getting good reviews: https://www.toyota.co.uk/new-cars/bz4x

It is just fine, and slightly cheaper, and so longer term it is unclear how it will all play out.

The real test for Tesla will be F150 Lightning vs Cyber Truck sales. If Ford can show strong sales, it shows that a focused incumbent can fend off an upstart competitor, despite the upstart's first-mover advantage on the drivetrain. The other sign to look for will be if European carmakers can slow Tesla's growth in the low to mid-end luxury market.

The drivetrain is basically a commodity too, a much simpler component than an engine. Unlike with legacy vehicles people will be hard pressed to feel the difference.

Based on teardowns Tesla is innovating here but even if they have an edge it is a tiny one (single digit percentage) because of diminishing returns.

> it’s a battery+software company with some wheels (literally) attached

I remember WeWork being a software company, not a commercial landlord.

That said, I agree that Tesla's software is significantly better than every competitor, but Autopilot is behind the other self-driving players, and I'd rather have dials than a touchscreen, anyway.