I can't let go of “The Dunning-Kruger Effect is Autocorrelation”

Re:I can't let go of “The Dunning-Kruger Effect is Autocorre... by kortilla on Friday April 22, 2022 @04:10AM (#31119343)

> but I don't think sound statistics can mislead.

Of course they can, unless you magically exclude all statistics that made a bad assumption on independence.

I plot all the daily high temperatures and the presence of the ice cream cart and it turns out the ice cream cart causes warmer highs! Solid statistics.

Turns out the guy that has the ice cream cart has a weather app on his phone though and doesn’t come out on forecasted cold days.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:I can't let go of “The Dunning-Kruger Effect is Autocorre... by mike_hearn on Friday April 22, 2022 @05:56AM (#31119852)

Is that the fault of statistics though, or the non-statistical implication of causation that was tacked on the end of the statistical detection of correlation? Statistics is pretty explicit that it can't tell you about causality, right?

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:I can't let go of “The Dunning-Kruger Effect is Autocorre... by omginternets on Friday April 22, 2022 @07:13AM (#31120262)

Yes, the whole point is that you can use sound statistics in bad faith.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:I can't let go of “The Dunning-Kruger Effect is Autocorre... by whatshisface on Friday April 22, 2022 @11:43AM (#31123040)

That's not sound statistics. How can you call something sound and then point out a clear problem with it?

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:I can't let go of “The Dunning-Kruger Effect is Autocorre... by kortilla on Tuesday April 26, 2022 @11:00PM (#31175818)

There’s nothing wrong with the statistics. That’s the point.

[ Parent | on HN ]