Maybe 90% by count, but not 90% by volume of transactions, prominence, etc. Bitcoin seems to be entirely resistant to moving away from PoW and Ethereum have been in the process of moving to PoS for years.

Pop quiz: What will happen first, Ethereum PoS or the year of linux on the desktop?

You realize the merge has already successfully completed on a testnet last month. The Geth client code for the merge is complete.

I’m willing to bet any amount you want up to $30,000 that Ethereum main net is running PoS by Dec 31 of this year.

At what odds?

1:1 I think is most fair.

So you think there is only a 50-50 chance of Ethereum being proof of stake by EOY?

Absolutely. Again, testnet has already merged.

Honestly that's a lot more cautious optimism than I would have expected from someone willing to put $30k on the line.

Yes, 90% by number transactions. Binance chain, Solana, Luna, AVAX, ADA, DOT are doing around 15 million transactions a day altogether while Bitcoin and Ethereum are only doing 1.5 million altogether.

90% by market cap or nominal quantity of projects?

Like, if we are using the second metric we could even create 1000s of irrelevant PoS coins to pump that baby up.