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A comment on Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to buy company. Parent comment

Re:Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to... by IshKebab on Saturday April 16, 2022 @03:38AM (#31050447)
Why would the likelihood go up under his model? If Musk had only offered $35 and people thought that was only 20% likely to happen (for the reasons you listed) then the market price would have only gone up to $31.
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Re:Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to... by sahila on Saturday April 16, 2022 @11:50AM (#31053268)
Say I offer to buy Apple for a penny/share. The price for their shares won’t move because of my offer but may move from normal market conditions. If the shares increased a dollar the day after my offer, would you say there’s a greater than 100% chance of my offer being accepted?
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Re:Twitter board adopts poison pill after Musk’s $43B bid to... by omegalulw on Saturday April 16, 2022 @09:17PM (#31057568)
There of course the implicit assumption here that Musk's offer is causally related to Twitter's stock price. OPs comment make sense if you keep that in mind.
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