Re:Putin’s War Is an Existential Crisis for the United Nations
by rntn on Friday April 15, 2022 @03:28AM
(#31037448)
I took the article as a piece on the crisis in the UN rather than as on the war that precipitated it..
I agree with you that there is no good solution for this situation to be found in removing nations from the positions that they currently occupy in the UN Security Council, and, even though it is certainly not Vindman alone calling for a veto override along the lines of the mechanism available to our legislative bodies here in the USA, it is not going to happen in the existing UN -- nor is the existing UN able to do anything meaningful for Ukraine.
We should not be under any illusions that this crisis ends with Ukraine, even for Europe : Putin's Serbian allies are already arming for another go at Kosovo and Moldova would not even last a week if Ukraine (or even just Odessa) falls..
Given that, as you write here, no world power will accept the jurisdiction of a foreign court (even if formulated as transnational like the ICC) and that punitive moves by the West have a high risk of cleaving the world into the West vs the rest, the question, in my opinion, becomes one of how the world - or at least the G7 (and probably most of the G20) - deal with wars of aggression such that they do not destroy the global economy (or, you know, trigger nuclear Armageddon) but without alienating the non authoritarian / totalitarian governments that comprise the bulk of the nations that just voted against Russia in the existing UN General Assembly.
Does NATO just keep expanding (I mean beyond the fait accompli of Finland and Sweden)? Does the EU continue its plans for militarization (and accept Ukraine into its (NATO overlapping) security structure)? What about ASEAN vis-à-vis Chinese ambition in the South China sea? What about the Norks scaring South Korea and even Japan into increasingly militaristic stances that then provoke China? And, of course, there is the problem of the democratic, independent and very sovereign island of Taiwan...
From my perspective at least, the largest economies of the world except for China rallying behind the values of the "rule of law" / "liberal world order" and doing all that they can to avoid WWIII - including a forklift upgrade to the existing global organizations that were created after the previous world war is not the worst outcome I can imagine..
I agree with you that there is no good solution for this situation to be found in removing nations from the positions that they currently occupy in the UN Security Council, and, even though it is certainly not Vindman alone calling for a veto override along the lines of the mechanism available to our legislative bodies here in the USA, it is not going to happen in the existing UN -- nor is the existing UN able to do anything meaningful for Ukraine.
We should not be under any illusions that this crisis ends with Ukraine, even for Europe : Putin's Serbian allies are already arming for another go at Kosovo and Moldova would not even last a week if Ukraine (or even just Odessa) falls..
Given that, as you write here, no world power will accept the jurisdiction of a foreign court (even if formulated as transnational like the ICC) and that punitive moves by the West have a high risk of cleaving the world into the West vs the rest, the question, in my opinion, becomes one of how the world - or at least the G7 (and probably most of the G20) - deal with wars of aggression such that they do not destroy the global economy (or, you know, trigger nuclear Armageddon) but without alienating the non authoritarian / totalitarian governments that comprise the bulk of the nations that just voted against Russia in the existing UN General Assembly.
Does NATO just keep expanding (I mean beyond the fait accompli of Finland and Sweden)? Does the EU continue its plans for militarization (and accept Ukraine into its (NATO overlapping) security structure)? What about ASEAN vis-à-vis Chinese ambition in the South China sea? What about the Norks scaring South Korea and even Japan into increasingly militaristic stances that then provoke China? And, of course, there is the problem of the democratic, independent and very sovereign island of Taiwan...
From my perspective at least, the largest economies of the world except for China rallying behind the values of the "rule of law" / "liberal world order" and doing all that they can to avoid WWIII - including a forklift upgrade to the existing global organizations that were created after the previous world war is not the worst outcome I can imagine..