Re:Elon Musk makes $43B unsolicited bid to take Twitter private
by renewiltord on Thursday April 14, 2022 @03:17PM
(#31031953)
Want to write a contract for where it'll be at close of market the first trading day after he announces he'll pull out? We can have break-even at Twitter being 19% down from now. You can appropriately hedge beta risk elsewhere and I'll put in $100 to induce participation. I'd prefer max $10k exposure for my side.
I can meet you in SF if you want signatures.
Re:Elon Musk makes $43B unsolicited bid to take Twitter private
by leereeves on Thursday April 14, 2022 @03:44PM
(#31032319)
In the months before Musk started buying, Twitter stocked declined by about 40% while the S&P was up slightly. Is it reasonable to assume that TWTR would have followed the market from Jan 31 to April 1 without Musk?
Re:Elon Musk makes $43B unsolicited bid to take Twitter private
by anonu on Thursday April 14, 2022 @04:46PM
(#31033056)
Good observation. Market impact is notoriously hard to measure - especially over a 2-month period like this one. You have to build a more complex model - which includes fundamentals.
Is this a lot or a little impact for buying close to 10 percent of a large cap stock? It's hard to say. I'd say it's a bit lower than i would have expected. Nonetheless, it provides somewhat of a floor if musk decides to sell his stake.
Edit: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001418091/000110465...
Musk bought between Jan 31 and April 1. Market was up 2.8% and Twitter was up 11.5%. So the impact was less. 7.8% beta adjusted.... Really not much...