He can't manipulate it into a 22% profit, for exactly the reason you articulated. His buying pushed the price up - his selling will push the price down. He might might make a small profit from the increase his buying news generated if he were to sell now, but his VWAP would be well below 22%.

Because the existing volatility sets the tone for the underlying risk tolerance that shareholders already deal with. It sucks, it’s not insignificant, but I do agree it’s not immensely significant as you are making it seem. It’s just the exposure a public company on the market can have have these days.

I agree it's bonkers that this is possible. I agree, in an environment where the SEC seems unable to stop him, Elon Musk might well consider 22% return worth doing. None of that is relevant to the point I'm making.

I'm contending the claim that the implicit (and completely pro forma!) threat in his SEC filing places "insane pressure" on the Twitter board. The the possibility of a 20+% stock price change will not play a large part in their calculations. It's just not a big deal in the context of such a volatile stock.

Don't you think he would lose a lot of reputation in future deals like this? I wouldn't trust him.

He hasn't needed any trust to go this far, his MO here is more of a hostile takeover, and he doesn't need any permission from Twitter to do it.

Good point.

It's not just any single person.