Re:Are film critics losing sync with audiences?
by tomrod on Tuesday April 12, 2022 @03:03PM
(#31006940)
> Any mental model that assigns zero weight to the probability of being wrong is a wrong mental model.
This is true when there is uncertainty. It also doesn't connect to "I only hire people who think like I do", which is the context of my response, so I don't follow your point.
Agreed on your other point that you need to instrument endogeneity. Another requirement is plausibility. Hookworm presence in Greenland should be uncorrelated to solar sunspots.
That said, biases arising from endogeneity might have negative effects too. You can't conclude a parameter should have a different/zero sign just because of endogeneity, you have to go fix your model, and re-estimate the parameters.