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Re:Researchers home in on possible “day zero” for Antikyther... by PeterisP on Monday April 11, 2022 @06:51PM (#30996152)
> there are at least two solar eclipses every year

That's only if you consider them globally, as a solar eclipse (especially a partial one) covers only a small part of Earth. A single particular location e.g. Ancient Greece would see a full solar eclipse roughly every 360 years and some kind of partial eclipse roughly once a century, so that's quite a big difference, making a solar eclipse exactly during the winter solstice in Greece a very rare once in a 10000 year event.

Re:Researchers home in on possible “day zero” for Antikyther... by Cyberthal on Monday April 11, 2022 @11:21PM (#30998227)
Yes, and solar eclipses are the most noticeable astronomical event. Since the mechanism's precision is to the day, this makes it a 10,000 years * 365 days = 3,650,000:1 chance of being a coincidence.
Re:Researchers home in on possible “day zero” for Antikyther... by isitmadeofglass on Tuesday April 12, 2022 @10:50AM (#31003498)
> chance of being a coincidence.

You can’t really work it like that. If I roll a dice and get a 6, you’d maybe say that this might be a coincidence because there’s 6 possible outcomes, with 1 chance of a , so a high chance it was a coincidence. But there’s 365 days in a year, and 200 countries in the world. So actually the fact that I rolled a 6 on this day and in this country has a 1:73000 chance and clearly can’t be just a coincidence. Now clearly something must be up, and I must be cheating at dice!

Re:Researchers home in on possible “day zero” for Antikyther... by Cyberthal on Saturday April 16, 2022 @09:06AM (#31051998)
Bad analogy. Fixed:

Once a day, you roll a dice with 3,650,000 sides. Only one of them shows a solar eclipse. On the day of the 200-year solar eclipse, the dice shows the solar eclipse side. Not a coincidence.

You're incorrectly applying a basic abstract statistical principle to a complicated real-world situation.