The theory is that putting predictions out there is the best way to learn. And looking at the results from this project, I think that's the case. The specificity of the predictions and the description of the reasoning helps us understand both the world and ourselves.
So I congratulate georgespencer for making a specific, testable prediction that turned out wrong. It's very interestingly wrong! Instagram didn't end up being just a photo service. Instead, it's a social phenomenon that uses photos in a deeply different way than we had seen previously. His prediction helps us see how much has changed in the 10 years since. There are a lot of people out there doin' it for the 'gram. There are plenty of people who life for and/or live off of it.
And personally, I suspect I would have agreed with georgespencer at the time. I like photography and like sharing photos. But I really dislike Instagram; it's not for me. So this is a reminder to me that just because a thing doesn't make sense to me doesn't mean it won't be hugely popular in world-changing ways.
Take a look at a project I worked on, Long Bets: https://longbets.org/
The theory is that putting predictions out there is the best way to learn. And looking at the results from this project, I think that's the case. The specificity of the predictions and the description of the reasoning helps us understand both the world and ourselves.
So I congratulate georgespencer for making a specific, testable prediction that turned out wrong. It's very interestingly wrong! Instagram didn't end up being just a photo service. Instead, it's a social phenomenon that uses photos in a deeply different way than we had seen previously. His prediction helps us see how much has changed in the 10 years since. There are a lot of people out there doin' it for the 'gram. There are plenty of people who life for and/or live off of it.
And personally, I suspect I would have agreed with georgespencer at the time. I like photography and like sharing photos. But I really dislike Instagram; it's not for me. So this is a reminder to me that just because a thing doesn't make sense to me doesn't mean it won't be hugely popular in world-changing ways.