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A comment on Is this how Russia ends?. Parent comment
“Isn’t ruled by Vladimir Putin” is highly predictive of GDP, but “has a warm-water port” is far more predictive.
Who is doing well? Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Georgia, Azerbaijan.
Who isn’t doing well? Kazakhstan, Kirghizistan, Tajikistan…
There are other variables. “Who has oil”, for example. But “who has unencumbered access to world trade through the sea” is the best.
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“Isn’t ruled by Vladimir Putin” is highly predictive of GDP, but “has a warm-water port” is far more predictive.
Who is doing well? Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Georgia, Azerbaijan.
Who isn’t doing well? Kazakhstan, Kirghizistan, Tajikistan…
There are other variables. “Who has oil”, for example. But “who has unencumbered access to world trade through the sea” is the best.