Re:Waymo begins driverless rides in San Francisco
by JumpCrisscross on Wednesday March 30, 2022 @11:58AM
(#30856981)
There is ambiguity in the word "have."
It's borderline obvious we will have a taxi/Uber replacement for most of lower Manhattan, east San Francisco and southeast Phoenix before 2030. (Technologically, at least.) Less confident in long-distance interstate-only driving by 2030, but that's better than 50/50.
Beyond that, the edge cases are innumerable, so it's difficult to estimate. Nevertheless, we have clear line of sight to domains where, for all intents and purposes, a human-driven vehicle will be obsolete (if not necessarily yet unquestionably uneconomical) in well under ten years. That's far more than we have ever been able to say for fusion.
It's borderline obvious we will have a taxi/Uber replacement for most of lower Manhattan, east San Francisco and southeast Phoenix before 2030. (Technologically, at least.) Less confident in long-distance interstate-only driving by 2030, but that's better than 50/50.
Beyond that, the edge cases are innumerable, so it's difficult to estimate. Nevertheless, we have clear line of sight to domains where, for all intents and purposes, a human-driven vehicle will be obsolete (if not necessarily yet unquestionably uneconomical) in well under ten years. That's far more than we have ever been able to say for fusion.