Mayybe. I certainly would have agreed with you a month ago. But it's a very plausible story, don't you think? If we allow ourselves to believe for a moment that Putin isn't a brilliant dictator genius playing 4d chess, and just think of him as a dictator. I bet he believes FSB intel over the western press.. there's such a strong bias to believe information that you've paid for, and to trust people in your employ.. and after all he paid them /so much/ money.

It's possible he's in a situation where he literally cannot buy honesty, and has no good substitute for it, so he just has to believe lies and make mistakes. How many lies and at what levels? I dunno.. but how would he know either? I think we take professionals being trustworthy for granted in the US, but really that property depends on incentives being aligned just right. I mean, look at the FBI's vetting process and its emphasis on financial entaglements- I think it's like that for a reason.