These “stories” as you call them are coming from nearly all western media.
> there is absolutely 0 way for us to know about the inner dynamics of the Kremlin that wouldn't be completely tainted by propaganda.
We don’t need to know the inner workings of the Kremlin to know that 8 years ago Putin illegally invaded Ukraine annexing Crimea, and based on the lack of response that he would be emboldened to eventually continue his use of force.
It’s great to champion support for Ukraine now, but most of that is just virtue signaling, where was the support for the last 8 years as Russia occupied entire parts of Ukraine?
Crimea was both geographically strategic put also a chance for Putin to gage response of the internationally community. It’s not exactly propaganda that he would have thought this armed conflict would have unfolded similarly his use of force and annexation of Ukrainian territory 8 years ago.
I think the comparison with Poland is not apt (despite the stunning similarities in the headlines - which make this a fantastic read), because Hitler's invasion of Poland triggered a declaration of war by the Allies, which Hitler was prepared for, and whom he invaded directly afterwards. This step by Putin is more similar to the invasion of Czechoslovakia, which met little enough resistance that he was emboldened to go after Poland. The Allies did help to arm Poland in the months after Czechoslovakia fell, as we're arming and moving troops to Latvia now, but England and France continued to pursue appeasement with Hitler. And in any case, Hitler had good reason to believe he could win a war in the West without American involvement, and given his pact with Stalin. Putin's pact with China looks a lot shakier; the West's reaction to a non-alliance country's invasion is much more united; the signals don't point to the idea that Putin could win any territory against NATO. If Germany were still debating the nordstream pipeline, if Orban had gotten on his side, if the sanctions had not been as extreme, he might take that as a signal that we were able to be picked off. So I think some differences apply.
It's true that our reaction to Crimea was akin to the West's reaction to Hitler's initial occupation of the Sudetenland, so he probably assumed this would go as well as Czechoslovakia... but thankfully it looks like he's a step behind.
Now don't get me wrong, it's necessary propaganda and it's war. But it's incredible to me that people actually what amount to fan fiction. Like seriously, no ukrainian I've talked with believes those far fetched but very convenient story. They know it's a war and propaganda is part of the war effort but they don't actually believe it themselves. I've only seen westerners eat those stories and craft their own lore around it. I guess we forgot about the supposed military coup to overthrow putin, him hiding in the Ural in fear of his life, the military units that were about to defect... 2 weeks ago.
At the end of the day, it does not matter even if it was true. We need to focus on helping ukraine and actually stay tethered to the reality on the ground and concrete actions we can do. There is a war on the ground, and for all intents and purposes there is absolutely 0 way for us to know about the inner dynamics of the Kremlin that wouldn't be completely tainted by propaganda.